External validation of a new prognostic score for mortality in the first 3 months of patients on the waiting list for liver transplantation

Abstract

Introduction. Viral liver cirrhosis is one of the most serious problems for the population due to its global spread, increased morbidity and mortality, and the high degree of disability caused by its rapid progression. Aim of study. To determine the survival of recipients on the liver transplant waiting list, several prognostic scores were proposed to predict the survival rate in patients with liver cirrhosis of viral etiology within 3 months of listing. Methods and materials. The cross-sectional clinical cohort study included 265 patients with viral liver cirrhosis aged 18-65 years on the waiting list for liver transplantation between 2013 and 2022, to whom 10 prognostic scores were applied. Results. Prognostic mortality at 3 months after listing for liver transplantation for the 10 scores the largest area under the ROC curve was observed for the MELD 3.0 score was 0.790 (0.6940.885) the p-value being less than 0.005 which means that the model is good for application in clinical practice and is statistically significant, being a score that excludes the discrepancy between male and female gender, thus ensuring a better distribution of liver transplants. Conclusion. The MELD 3.0 score can in fact be used to enroll patients on the waiting list for liver transplantation in the national program as a score for the future, being a useful prognostic predictor of both short-term and long-term survival. its global spread, increased morbidity and mortality, and the high degree of disability caused by its rapid progression. Aim of study. To determine the survival of recipients on the liver trans plant waiting list, several prognostic scores were proposed to predict the survival rate in patients with liver cirrhosis of viral etiology within 3 months of listing. Methods and materials. The cross-sectional clinical cohort study included 265 patien ts with viral liver cirrhosis aged 18-65 years on the waiting list for liver transplantation between 2013 and 2022, to whom 10 prognostic scores were applied. Results. Prognostic mortality at 3 months after listing for li ver transplantation for the 10 scores the largest area under the ROC curve was observed for the M ELD 3.0 score was 0.790 (0.6940.885) the p-value being less than 0.005 which means that the model i s good for application in clinical practice and is statistically significant, bei ng a score that excludes the discrepancy between male and female gender, thus ensuring a better distribution of liver transplants. Conclusion. The MELD 3.0 score can in fact be used to enroll patients o n the waiting list for liver transplantation in the national program as a score fo r the future, being a useful prognostic predictor of both short-term and long-term survival.