Demographic aging in the Republic of Moldova: causes, level and consequences

Abstract

Introduction. The demographic aging of the population is a shift in the distribution of a country's population towards older ages due to the demographic changes such as fertility, mortality and migration. According to data, in 2018, in the Republic of Moldova the number of people aged 60 years and over was 17.7%, and according to UN by 2050 it will rise up to 32.5%. Aim of the study. To analyze the causes, trends and consequences of the demographic aging process in the Republic of Moldova based on the official statistical data referring to the usual resident population disseminated by the National Bureau of Statistics. Materials and methods. We analyzed such indicators as the proportion of the population aged 60 years and older, life expectancy at birth, natural population growth rate, standardized birth and death rates, net migration and demographic dependency ratio. Results. The aging process affects mostly female population from rural area. The average life expectancy at birth based on the estimates of the usual resident population, for both sexes, is 70.6 years in 2018, while the sex gap is 8.8 years. The recent trends in mortality indicate a moderate increase in life expectancy, especially in women. The reduction in mortality from cardiovascular diseases in the elderly population is the main contributor to this improvement. The natural population growth (-1,218 persons in 2018) is negative since 1999 and will only intensify in the future due to the entry into the childbearing age of less numerous generations born in the 1990s. Very high net migration (-49,408 persons in 2017) intensifies the population ageing process and is its leading cause. The demographic dependency ratio in the country (ratio of children 0-14 and older population aged 60 and over to the adult population 15-59) is 63%, which indicates a relatively low social burden for the society. Total fertility rate recalculated by the National Bureau of Statistics based on the usual resident population is 1,82 children per one woman, which is among the highest values in Europe. Conclusions. The Republic of Moldova is considered one of the countries with a moderate level of demographic aging process. The high migration outflow of the population, especially from rural areas, is the leading cause, while a continuous decline in fertility intensifies the process. The problem of aging is now evaluated from a socio-economic standpoint rather than the demographic one, and taking into account trends and consequences is the most important task of the social policy in the republic.