Оценка эпидемической ситуации по туберкулёзу в Украине и возможные сценарии её прогноза

Abstract

The work is aimed at the assessment of the epidemiological situation of tuberculosis (TB) in Ukraine and the development of possible scenarios of outlooks incidence of this infection in the short and medium term perspective. It is established that the epidemic situation of tuberculosis in Ukraine is an emergency. This fact is indicated by the following parameters: since 1995 more than 1% of the population has been suffering from TB (460 219 patients were registered in tuberculosis institutions in 2011), and the intense morbidity indicator was 68.1 per 100 thousand people in 2012, what was twice as much as the epidemic threshold (30.0 per 100 thousand of population). A strong inverse statistical correlation (rank correlation coefficient ranges from 7836 to 8718) between the incidence of TB and human development index (HDI) has been proved in the countries of the WHO European Region. The major factor contributing to the spread of TB in Ukraine is one of the lowest rates of HDI in Europe, which in 2010 was 0.725 in Ukraine (the 43d place among 51 countries in the WHO European Region, and at the same time the 8th place by TB incidence). The prognosis of TB morbidity in Ukraine has two possible scenarios: an optimistic scenario (there is a statistical tendency to moderate decrease in the incidence of TB) and a pessimistic one (a gradual increase in the incidence of TB, which can be associated with the negative tendencies of the global crisis and European development). In Ukraine, a severe statistical tendency to the increase of intensive indicators of TB associated with HIV infection stands in favor of the latter scenario.