Abstract:
Introduction. Today it is necessary to create new methods for studying and predicting the course of diseases. One of these tools is the construction of a mathematical model. The purpose of the study was to make a mathematical model for predicting tuberculosis treatment effectiveness based on determining the levels of Human-beta-defensin-1, ferritin and interleukin-6. Materials and methods. The study included 44 patients with pulmonary tuberculosis. Results. To predict the effectiveness of anti-tuberculosis treatment based on the level of HBD-1, the equation was obtained:
A = 0.63877*Defl - 0.09831*Def2 - 9.18519 B = 0.3405*Defl + 0.4666*Def2- 23.5351 For ferritin, the equation was obtained:
A = 0.63877*Ferl - 0.09831*Fer2 - 9.18519
B = 0.3405*Ferl + 0.4666*Fer2- 23.5351 For IL-6, the equation was obtained:
A = 0.01538*IL6-1 + 0.13728*IL6-2 - 3.38667 B = -0.0563*IL6-1 + 0.7154*IL6-2- 50.9235 Conclusions. Based on a study of the relationships between the effectiveness of tuberculosis treatment and the levels of Human-beta-defensin-1, ferritin and interleukin-6, a mathematical model was built that allows predicting the effectiveness of anti-tuberculosis therapy based on determining the data of biochemical markers at the beginning of treatment and after 60 days of anti-tuberculosis therapy with specificity and sensitivity of at least 88%.
